Dems Set Registration Record in Oregon, Merkley Outraises Smith and More Oregon News

In this edition of my reports on Oregon political news, I talk about how the Oregon Democrats keep improving their chances of a big win in 19 days.  Namely, voter registration for Democrats has crushed all previously existing records and Jeff Merkley, for the second quarter in a row, outraised Gordon Smith.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

In this edition, I discuss four stories:

1. Democrats set new Voter Registration Record.

2. Merkley outraises Smith.

3. New Poll Confirms Schrader dominates Erickson in OR-5.

4. My Favorite Local Ads.

Democrats set new Voter Registration Record:

Story: Oregon tilts heavily to Democrats in registration

With the conclusion of the voter registration period on Tuesday, the near final voter registration numbers are now in (registrations count if they were postmarked by Tuesday so these may increase slightly).  The winner is unquestionably the Democratic Party.  In 2004 there were 829k Democrats and 762k Republicans (these numbers are misleadingly high because the old county by county system meant that if you moved within the state your name was often not removed from your old county’s list).  As of Tuesday there are 928k Democrats and 693k Republicans, a record number of Democrats and a record gap between the two parties for Oregon.  To quote the article discussing these numbers

According to the state Elections Division, between May 21 and Wednesday, 4,123 registered Democrats became Republicans. During the first four months of the year, 2,106 Democrats did the same. For all of 2008, 26,657 Republicans switched their registration to Democrat and 6,229 Democrats became Republicans, a net gain of 20,428 registered Democrats.  The Democrats did even better among nonaffiliated voters, who make up about 20 percent of the Oregon electorate. Since Jan. 1, 52,064 previously nonaffiliated voters registered as Democrats and 6,344 as Republicans, a net gain of 45,720 for the Democrats.

 I do not yet have the breakdown by district or county but a look at the most recent statistics available there, covering through the end of last month (http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/sep08.pdf) shows that Democrats have made gains statewide and that, for example, even if you removed Multnomah County (Portland) from the picture) Democrats would still have a statewide registration edge of around 70k voters, more than they had four years ago.

Merkley Outraises Smith for the Second Quarter in a Row:

Following the submission of Gordon Smith’s fundraising numbers for last quarter, I can now safely say that Jeff Merkley once again outraised Smith.  According to the wonderful Sarah Lane, Netroots director for Merkley, these are Smith’s numbers:

$1.87 million raised

$4.8 million spent

$1.5 million on hand

.

We know from previous reports that Merkley raised somewhere in the $2-$2.1M range last quarter and although expenditures/COH numbers are not yet available, Merkley looks to be in great shape.  Further proof that Merkley’s grassroots-based fundraising effort can outraise the lobbyists and special interests that fund Smith’s campaign.

New Poll Confirms Schrader dominates Erickson in OR-5:

The first poll of the year is out in OR-5 and Democrat Kurt Schrader leads Republican Mike Erickson 51-38 (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=66f4a22a-0b85-4b86-9040-84643db392ec).  Although there are some strange findings in this poll, such as that younger voters slightly prefer Erickson, it is further proof the long-held belief that Schrader will cruise this fall.

My Favorite Local Ads

The following are my three favorite local ads of the cycle:

Suzanne VanOrman (D), running against Ultimate Fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland (R) for State Rep:

Greg Matthews (D), running against John Lim (R):

No on 64 ad (Ban on Political Deductions for Public Employee Unions):

Let me know what you think.